29 August, 4pm:
A tropical wave over the central Atlantic has a 40% chance of forming a cyclone within seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The weather system is producing some disorganised showers and thunderstorms, and is expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the eastern Caribbean in the middle of next week.
Forecasters have said that environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development and a tropical depression could form by early next week.
The system is moving at 10 to 15 miles per hour and there is no chance of cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, according to the hurricane centre’s forecast at 2pm on 29 August.
Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency said in a Facebook post the same day that it is monitoring the disturbance and will provide regular updates.
It Montserrat is within the system’s cone of uncertainty but is still several days away making it too early to make precise predictions about its development and impact on the island.
Above average
In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted an above normal Atlantic hurricane season. This takes place from June 1 to November 30.
Experts forecast a range of 17 to 25 total named storms with winds of 39 miles per hour or higher. They expect eight to 13 to become hurricanes, with winds of 74 miles per hour or higher.
Of those, they have forecast four to seven to be major hurricanes, of category three, four or five, with winds of 111 miles per hour or higher.
Montserrat’s Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) director Alvin Ryan, in a Facebook video message on 1 June, urged residents to prepare.
“Action now can really help reduce the impacts of storms on our communities, reduce damage to property, and most importantly, save lives, which is the ultimate goal,” he said.
“Remember, it only takes one.”
Information on how to prepare for a hurricane is available in the DMCA’s 2024 Hurricane Preparedness Guide here.
Visit the National Hurricane Center for the latest weather updates at www.nhc.noaa.gov
